One Behind the Other

In response to yesterdays "Something to Chew On", one reader “Godfather” invited me to chew on the prospect of Obama replacing Timothy Geithner and Larry Summers with more realistic and less Rubin-esque economic advisers like Paul Krugman and Nouriel Roubini. Sounds like a good idea but timing is everything, and you have to set it up correctly.

Grandma Grumpy had a piece of wisdom that bares consideration in this context. "One behind the other", she used to say whenever some kitchen staple ran out and she pulled out a fresh box, can or bottle of whatever foodstuff had just been finished off. It was point of pride with her. A careful homemaker always thought ahead and made sure she was covered for all contingencies.

Likewise an effective president will always keep in mind the right time and method to “finish off” one of his aides and he will have number of carefully vetted replacements lined up.

When the time is ripe he will be ruthless in his dispatch without looking cruel or vindictive. Already Obama has shown himself to have the right stuff when executing his minions. Bill Richardson: Whack. Tom Daschle: Thwap. Judd Gregg: Boing. Obama could so easily have looked feckless and disoriented as a result of these departures. Instead he looked cool, calculatingly and in control.

Geithner and Summers will almost certainly get the ax at some point, not because they will have failed at the job but because the job is impossible. The public trust will at some point require a placebo of fresh blood. Fresh blood is rarely better than the old blood but it is always fresher.

Regarding the lining up of suitable replacements, Obama needs to get much better. It has taken him too long to stand up his second and third choices as his first and second picks have fallen. He needs to develop deep benches in every area.

Krugman and Roubini are both hot prospects in the financial area. They both have the unfashionable advantage of having been prematurely correct in their analyses of our economy. Everyone hates hearing, “I told you so.” In picking Geithner and Summers, Obama was no doubt trying to reassure Wall Street that he was not going to saddle them with anyone too zealous in punishing their mistakes and misdeeds. So he picked a few advisers who though chastened by recent circumstances had also largely shared in Wall Street’s wrong headedness.

Obama may share or come to share the economic worldview of Krugman and Roubini but if he ever resorts to them he will make it look as if he has been forced to it because more conventional economic thinkers have been found wanting. A great politician never gets too far out in front of the herd.

It must be pointed out that Krugman and Roubini do not come without liabilities in the not unimportant PR department. This is a serious consideration. Obama almost certainly wishes they had screen tested Timothy Geithner before handing him the Treasury. Geithner’s big speech on the economy a couple of weeks ago reminded some viewers of Eddie Haskell. Others were reminded of that annoying kid from summer camp whom everyone used to torment with wedgies.

Krugman, as much as we love him, is also impossible on television. With that furry professorial visage and his eyes darting back and forth furtively from side to side he looks like a wicked smart beaver. Whenever he says something I agree with, my next thought is that I also should be vigilant for large predators with pointy teeth.

If Krugman cut his hair closer, shaved his beard and grew a big walrus mustache he would look a lot like the millionaire from the old Monopoly game. That would reassure the majority of Americans who learned everything they know about economics from playing Monopoly.

Roubini is a special problem. The last high government official with a heavy foreign accent was Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser, Zbigniew Brezinski. Brezinski proved that you could be right about almost everything and still not have what it takes to sell it to the peanut gallery.

There is nothing you can do with Roubini’s accent so I would double down on it and have him go everywhere with Arnold Schwarzenegger. This would remind everyone in a heartwarming way of that great film “Twins” in which Arnold played opposite Danny Devito. Arnold and Nouriel would get a lot of laughs “translating” for each other. Roubini could play the egghead and Schwarzenegger could follow-up with an explanation for the six-pack crowd. Arnold is a great political communicator because whenever he says something at all intelligent, there is a powerfully disarming subliminal message conveyed: “Even a bonehead like me can understand this.”